Event Recap: New findings on racial equity in unemployment insurance + tax credits
On December 1st, O-Lab hosted a webinar showcasing new work from Claire Montialoux (UC Berkeley) and Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton) examining racial inequities in the US Unemployment Insurance (UI) program, a core pillar of the US social safety net. Since 2020, Claire and Ellora have been constructing a new database of state-level UI eligibility rules and benefits covering the period of 1935 - 2020. Their work offers an unprecedented, detailed look into how the UI program has been shaped by state-level racial demographics, and in turn, how the program has itself perpetuated racial inequities. When completed, the database will offer researchers and policy-makers a new opportunity to investigate how the design of public programs has shaped long-term economic outcomes for different racial groups, and to consider how reforms to the UI program could advance equity.
The webinar also featured a presentation from Hadi Elzayn (Meta) sharing recent work he completed with colleagues at Stanford, the University of Michigan, the University of Chicago, and the US Department of the Treasury examining racial disparities in the tax auditing system, with insights into which types of policies hold the most promise for mitigating these disparities. As compared to machine learning models with more information on real tax compliance rates, Hadi’s model based solely on data related to receipt of refundable tax credits, best predicts differences in auditing among racial groups. “This refundable credit focus is generating disparities,” he noted.
Finally, the webinar concluded with a discussion between Damon Jones (Harris School, University of Chicago) and Danny Yagan (UC Berkeley). Jones and Yagan both recently returned to academia from service in the federal government (The White House Council of Economic Advisors and The Office of Management and Budget, respectively). Through a conversation moderated by O-Lab Director Hilary Hoynes (UC Berkeley) and through audience Q&A, the two shared insights from their experience in DC on how federal policymakers can learn from this kind of research and use it to craft a more racially equitable tax and safety net system.
Below, explore complete recordings of presentations and discussion from the event.